Sunday, May 31, 2015

Global Risks Report 2

1. Fragile Societies under Pressure
Question: How do economic inequality and climate change put pressure on society?
- "Widening income inequality is associated with lower and more fragile economic growth, which reduces the scope to meet rising social expectations in emerging markets.
- "While inequality and unemployment contribute to social instability, social instability in turn impacts negatively on equality, employment and wealth creation. The multi-directional cause-and-effect relationship makes it harder to address the related risks."
- "Its expected impact on the ability to grow food and access water could prompt sudden and uncontrolled population migrations, putting additional pressure on receiving countries."

2. Growing Worries about Conflict
Question: How do geopolitical risks create other risks?
- "The risk of the failure of national governance and state collapse or crisis can increase in areas where current state boundaries do not necessarily reflect popular self-identification."

3. Economic Risks: Out of the spotlight? 
Question: What are the new risks rising in 2105?
- "The risks of a failure of a major financial mechanism or institution and fiscal crises are perceived as equally impactful and likely as in last year’s report, yet other risks, such as water crises, interstate conflict and the failure of climate-change adaptation, have taken centre stage."

4. Environment - High Concern, Little Progress
Question: How do environmental problems get worse in 2015?
- "Both water crises and failure of climate-change adaptation are also perceived as more likely and impactful than average."
- "Overfishing, deforestation and the inadequate management of sensitive ecosystems such as coral reefs are increasing the stress on food and water systems."

5. Technological: Back to the Future
Question: How do advantages of technology create new problems?
- "Analytics on large and disparate data sources can drive breakthrough insights but also raise questions about expectations of privacy and the fair and appropriate use of data about individuals. Security risks are also intensified. "
- "The feedback loops between risks and the fact that they are also driven by underlying trends raise their complexity and make it more difficult to control individual risks."

6. Preparedness at Regional Level is Different
Question: How are regions prepared to handle their problems?
- "High structural unemployment or underemployment is seen as the risk for which Europe is least prepared, followed by large-scale involuntary migration and profound social instability."
- "North America identifies failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure, large-scale cyber attacks and failure of climate-change adaptation as the three risks for which it is least prepared."
- "Sub-Saharan Africa is considered least prepared for infectious diseases and unemployment."
- "Many regions, including Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa, also include profound social instability among the risks they are least prepared for."
- "East Asia and the Pacific is perceived as least prepared for interstate conflict and failure of urban planning [and] man-made environmental catastrophes. "
- "Failure of urban planning is among the first three risks in East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia."

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